Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties

Joseph Kuria Waitara; Gregory Kerich; John Kihoro; Anne Korir

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties

Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 10, Issue 4)

Received: 1 June 2021 Accepted: 18 June 2021 Published: 30 June 2021

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Abstract

Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.

Published in	American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 10, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
Page(s)	175-183
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Spatial-temporal, Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, Generalized Linear Mixed Models

References

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[15]	Joab Otieno Odera, Elizabeth Odera, Jessie Githangâ€™a, Edwin Oloo Walong, Fang Li, Zhaohui Xiong, and Xiaoxin Luke Chen. Esophageal cancer in Kenya. American journal of digestive disease, 4 (3): 23, 2017.
[16]	R Pacella-Norman, MI Urban, F Sitas, H Carrara, R Sur, M Hale, P Ruff, M Patel, R Newton, D Bull, et al. Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black south africans. British journal of cancer, 86 (11): 1751–1756, 2002.
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APA Style

Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir. (2021). Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 10(4), 175-183. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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ACS Style

Joseph Kuria Waitara; Gregory Kerich; John Kihoro; Anne Korir. Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2021, 10(4), 175-183. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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AMA Style

Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir. Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2021;10(4):175-183. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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@article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11,
  author = {Joseph Kuria Waitara and Gregory Kerich and John Kihoro and Anne Korir},
  title = {Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties},
  journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {175-183},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20211004.11},
  abstract = {Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties
AU  - Joseph Kuria Waitara
AU  - Gregory Kerich
AU  - John Kihoro
AU  - Anne Korir
Y1  - 2021/06/30
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
SP  - 175
EP  - 183
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9006
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
AB  - Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Joseph Kuria Waitara

School of Sciences and Aerospace Studies, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya
Gregory Kerich

School of Sciences and Aerospace Studies, Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya
John Kihoro

School of Computing and Mathematics, The Co-operative University of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
Anne Korir

National Cancer Registry, Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir. (2021). Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 10(4), 175-183. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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ACS Style

Joseph Kuria Waitara; Gregory Kerich; John Kihoro; Anne Korir. Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2021, 10(4), 175-183. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

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AMA Style

Joseph Kuria Waitara, Gregory Kerich, John Kihoro, Anne Korir. Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2021;10(4):175-183. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11,
  author = {Joseph Kuria Waitara and Gregory Kerich and John Kihoro and Anne Korir},
  title = {Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties},
  journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
  volume = {10},
  number = {4},
  pages = {175-183},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20211004.11},
  abstract = {Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Spatial-temporal Modelling of Oesophageal and Lung Cancers in Kenya’s Counties
AU  - Joseph Kuria Waitara
AU  - Gregory Kerich
AU  - John Kihoro
AU  - Anne Korir
Y1  - 2021/06/30
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
SP  - 175
EP  - 183
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9006
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20211004.11
AB  - Oesophageal cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues lining the oesophagus (the muscular tube through which food passes from the throat to the stomach) while Lung cancer is the cancer that forms in tissues of the lung, usually in the cells lining air passages. In this study, Data collected by the Nairobi Cancer Registry (NCR) was used to produce spatial-temporal distribution of oesophageal cancer cases for counties in Kenya. The study revealed, counties where data was available Bomet had highest relative risk of oesophageal cancer, followed by Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Nakuru, Kakamega Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu and Machakos counties respectively. The study revealed that smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors of oesophageal cancer in Kenya. Generation of spatio-temporal maps and identification of the risk factors from various counties with notified oesophageal cancer cases is a major milestone since previous studies focused on specific regions. The multiplicative effect of smoking was observed to be 1.012, indicating that oesophageal cancer is 1.2% higher to those who smoke compared to non-smokers. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was observed to be 1.0346, indicating that oesophageal cancer was 3.5% higher to alcohol users as compared to non-alcohol users. The study findings revealed that, the multiplicative effect of smoking was 1.4021, indicating that lung cancer was 40.21% higher to smokers as compared to non-smokers from the available data. The multiplicative effect of alcohol use was 1.3689 indicating that the risk of lung cancer was 36.89% higher to alcohol users compared to non-alcohol users. Clearly, counties where the data was not available the relative risks were relatively low, therefore even though the data was not available in these counties application of spatial-temporal accounting for covariates revealed that there is risk of oesophageal and lung cancer in the counties. To enhance research on oesophageal, lung and other types of cancer in Kenya the National Cancer Registry in collaboration with Counties health departments should work very closely to enhance cancer data collection to facilitate research and to inform the appropriate measures to be implemented to mitigate the increase of cancer cases.
VL  - 10
IS  - 4
ER  -

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