American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics

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Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents and Its Severity in North Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Received: Jun. 08, 2018    Accepted: Jul. 01, 2018    Published: Jul. 23, 2018
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Abstract

Ethiopia is a country with the largest number of road traffic accidents and fatality rate. Pedestrians and the disabled, children and the aged in particular, are the major victims of these accidents. The severity of road traffic crashes is also likely to be much greater in Africa than anywhere else. The major objective of this study was to identify the major factors determining road traffic accidents and its severity in North Shewa Zone. The study is based on secondary data obtained from the police records of the accident cases in North Shewa Zone Police station from February 2013 - September 2016 G. C. The ordinal logistic regression analysis is applied to examine the association between severity levels of road traffic accidentsand human related variables, environmental and road related variables and vehicle related variables. Ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that age of driver, driver-vehicle relationship, speed, alcohol use, chewing khat, educational level, driving experience and vehicle service year were found to be significant predictors for severity levels of road traffic accident.

DOI 10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15
Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics ( Volume 7, Issue 4, July 2018 )
Page(s) 163-166
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This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Ordinal Logistic Regression, Road Traffic Accidents, Proportional Odds Model

References
[1] W. H. Organization, Global status report on road safety: time for action, World Health Organization, 2009.
[2] M. M. Peden, World report on road traffic injury prevention, World Health Organization. 2004.
[3] Greg Chen): Road traffic safety in African countries – status, trend, contributing factors, countermeasures and challenges, international journal of injury control and safety promotion, Vol. 17:4, pp. 247-255, 2010.
[4] GAO (Government Accountability Office). Research Continues on a Variety of Factors that Contribute to Motor Vehicle Crashes. GAO-03-436, Government Accountability Office, Washington, D. C. 2003.
[5] Harrell, Jr., F. E, Regression modeling strategies, with applications to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. Springer-Verlag, New York. 2001.
[6] Agresti, A. Categorical Data Analysis. Wiley Interscience, New York, second edition, 2002.
[7] Hosmer, W. D. and S. Lemeshow (2000), Applied Logistic Regression. 2nd Edn., John Wiley and Sons, New York
[8] K. K. W. Yau. Risk factors affecting the severity of single vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong, Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 36, pp. 333–340. 2004.
[9] C. O'Donnell, D. Connor, Predicting the severity of motor vehicle accident injuries using models of ordered multiple choice, Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 28, pp. 739–753, 1996.
[10] K. M. Kockelman, Y.-J. Kweon, Driver injury severity: an application of ordered probit models, Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 34, pp. 313–321, 2002.
[11] A. S. Al-Ghamdi, Using logistic regression to estimate the influence of accident factors on accident severity, Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 34, pp. 729–741, 2002.
[12] L. Aarts, I. van Schagen, Driving speed and the risk of road crashes: a review, Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 38, pp. 215–224, 2006.
[13] M. D. Keall, et al., The contribution of alcohol to night time crash risk and other risks of night driving, Accident Analysis and Prevention Vol. 37, pp. 816–824, 2005.
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  • APA Style

    Bezarede Mekonnen. (2018). Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents and Its Severity in North Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 7(4), 163-166. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15

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    ACS Style

    Bezarede Mekonnen. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents and Its Severity in North Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2018, 7(4), 163-166. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15

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    AMA Style

    Bezarede Mekonnen. Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents and Its Severity in North Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2018;7(4):163-166. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15,
      author = {Bezarede Mekonnen},
      title = {Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents and Its Severity in North Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia},
      journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
      volume = {7},
      number = {4},
      pages = {163-166},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20180704.15},
      eprint = {https://download.sciencepg.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20180704.15},
      abstract = {Ethiopia is a country with the largest number of road traffic accidents and fatality rate. Pedestrians and the disabled, children and the aged in particular, are the major victims of these accidents. The severity of road traffic crashes is also likely to be much greater in Africa than anywhere else. The major objective of this study was to identify the major factors determining road traffic accidents and its severity in North Shewa Zone. The study is based on secondary data obtained from the police records of the accident cases in North Shewa Zone Police station from February 2013 - September 2016 G. C. The ordinal logistic regression analysis is applied to examine the association between severity levels of road traffic accidentsand human related variables, environmental and road related variables and vehicle related variables. Ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that age of driver, driver-vehicle relationship, speed, alcohol use, chewing khat, educational level, driving experience and vehicle service year were found to be significant predictors for severity levels of road traffic accident.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

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    AB  - Ethiopia is a country with the largest number of road traffic accidents and fatality rate. Pedestrians and the disabled, children and the aged in particular, are the major victims of these accidents. The severity of road traffic crashes is also likely to be much greater in Africa than anywhere else. The major objective of this study was to identify the major factors determining road traffic accidents and its severity in North Shewa Zone. The study is based on secondary data obtained from the police records of the accident cases in North Shewa Zone Police station from February 2013 - September 2016 G. C. The ordinal logistic regression analysis is applied to examine the association between severity levels of road traffic accidentsand human related variables, environmental and road related variables and vehicle related variables. Ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that age of driver, driver-vehicle relationship, speed, alcohol use, chewing khat, educational level, driving experience and vehicle service year were found to be significant predictors for severity levels of road traffic accident.
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Author Information
  • Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia

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