Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso

Lucien Damiba; Ali Doumounia; Aminata Zeba; Tiéba Nissi Traoré; Cheick Oumar Sawadogo; François Zougmoré

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso

Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, François Zougmoré

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 8, Issue 2)

Received: 15 April 2020 Accepted: 7 May 2020 Published: 27 May 2020

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Abstract

Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.

Published in	International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 8, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
Page(s)	27-32
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Rural Community, Sahel, Climate Change, Resilience, Forecast

References

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[4]	A. Dai, K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, “Global Variations in Droughts and Wet Spells: 1900-1995,” Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 25, no. 17, pp. 3367–3370, 1998, doi: 98GL52511 0094-8534/98/98GL-52511$05.0.
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APA Style

Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. (2020). Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 8(2), 27-32. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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ACS Style

Lucien Damiba; Ali Doumounia; Aminata Zeba; Tiéba Nissi Traoré; Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2020, 8(2), 27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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AMA Style

Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2020;8(2):27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12,
  author = {Lucien Damiba and Ali Doumounia and Aminata Zeba and Tiéba Nissi Traoré and Cheick Oumar Sawadogo and François Zougmoré},
  title = {Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {27-32},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20200802.12},
  abstract = {Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso
AU  - Lucien Damiba
AU  - Ali Doumounia
AU  - Aminata Zeba
AU  - Tiéba Nissi Traoré
AU  - Cheick Oumar Sawadogo
AU  - François Zougmoré
Y1  - 2020/05/27
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 27
EP  - 32
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
AB  - Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Lucien Damiba

Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Ali Doumounia

Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Aminata Zeba

Department of Physic, Materials and Environment Laboratory (LA.M.E.), University Joseph KI-ZERBO, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Tiéba Nissi Traoré

WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Cheick Oumar Sawadogo

WaterAid, International Program Department, West Africa Regional Learning Centre for Water Resources Management (RLC-WRM), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
François Zougmoré

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APA Style

Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. (2020). Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 8(2), 27-32. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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ACS Style

Lucien Damiba; Ali Doumounia; Aminata Zeba; Tiéba Nissi Traoré; Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2020, 8(2), 27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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AMA Style

Lucien Damiba, Ali Doumounia, Aminata Zeba, Tiéba Nissi Traoré, Cheick Oumar Sawadogo, et al. Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2020;8(2):27-32. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12,
  author = {Lucien Damiba and Ali Doumounia and Aminata Zeba and Tiéba Nissi Traoré and Cheick Oumar Sawadogo and François Zougmoré},
  title = {Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {8},
  number = {2},
  pages = {27-32},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20200802.12},
  abstract = {Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Forecast Analysis of Hydro-climatic Data of Nouhao Sub-basin in East-Central of Burkina Faso
AU  - Lucien Damiba
AU  - Ali Doumounia
AU  - Aminata Zeba
AU  - Tiéba Nissi Traoré
AU  - Cheick Oumar Sawadogo
AU  - François Zougmoré
Y1  - 2020/05/27
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 27
EP  - 32
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200802.12
AB  - Forecast analysis of hydro-climatics data of Nouhao Sub-Basin shows how useful local rain gauges data collected by population during 4 to 7 years in three (03) villages on the experimental site for the local planning and forecasting. The first results show that i) the breakdown of the series determines the seasonality and occurrence of "casual" rains; ii) the auto-correlation detection test showed that casual rains are not self-correlated and validates the model; iii) the dry/rainy season cycle is from mid-October to April and from mid-April to mid-October for this experimental site, iv) the forecasts for N+1 years in 2016, 2017 and 2018, compared to the collected data, clearly show that the statistical forecast model is robust. The level of correlation is satisfactory with a positive correlation coefficient close to unity. The deficit of cumulative rainfall average around to 14%. The 2019 forecast shows a deficit compared to the previous year (2018). It is a dry year compared to the average index for the period 2012-2018. However, the 2019 forecast for the experimental area corroborates well with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (ICDS/CILSS) forecasts indicating a normal to surplus year with pockets of drought in the second part of the season for part of Burkina Faso. Longer monitoring in the basin would contribute to seasonal forecasting efforts in Burkina Faso.
VL  - 8
IS  - 2
ER  -

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