Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee

Khayrun Nahar Mitu; Khairul Hasan

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

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Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee

Khayrun Nahar Mitu, Khairul Hasan

Published in International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 9, Issue 6)

Received: 25 September 2021 Accepted: 2 November 2021 Published: 29 December 2021

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Abstract

Temperature is an essential weather component because of its tremendous impact on humans and the environment. As a result, one of the widely researched parts of global climate change study is temperature forecasting. This work analyzes trends and forecasts a temperature change to see the transient variations over time using daily temperature data from January 1, 2016 – November 3, 2019, collected from a weather station located at the Memphis International Airport. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test is used to detect time series analysis patterns as a non-parametric technique. The result from the test revealed that the temperature time series increased by 0.0030 °F almost every day, implying that the location is becoming hotter. The other method of analysis is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which fits temperature time series using its three standard processes of identification, diagnosis, and forecasting. Considering the selection criteria, The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (3, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0)₃₆₅ model is found as appropriate for the studied temperature data on a daily basis. Finally, the selected model is utilized to estimate the next 50 days; after November 3, 2019, the temperature forecast showed an increasing trend. This observed trend provides an understanding of daily temperature change in the studied area for that specific period.

Published in	International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis (Volume 9, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
Page(s)	214-221
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

ARIMA, Daily Average Temperature Data, Mann–Kendall (M–K) Test, Trend, Memphis International Airport, SARIMA

References

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APA Style

Khayrun Nahar Mitu, Khairul Hasan. (2021). Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 9(6), 214-221. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

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ACS Style

Khayrun Nahar Mitu; Khairul Hasan. Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2021, 9(6), 214-221. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

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AMA Style

Khayrun Nahar Mitu, Khairul Hasan. Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2021;9(6):214-221. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

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@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17,
  author = {Khayrun Nahar Mitu and Khairul Hasan},
  title = {Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {9},
  number = {6},
  pages = {214-221},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20210906.17},
  abstract = {Temperature is an essential weather component because of its tremendous impact on humans and the environment. As a result, one of the widely researched parts of global climate change study is temperature forecasting. This work analyzes trends and forecasts a temperature change to see the transient variations over time using daily temperature data from January 1, 2016 – November 3, 2019, collected from a weather station located at the Memphis International Airport. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test is used to detect time series analysis patterns as a non-parametric technique. The result from the test revealed that the temperature time series increased by 0.0030 °F almost every day, implying that the location is becoming hotter. The other method of analysis is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which fits temperature time series using its three standard processes of identification, diagnosis, and forecasting. Considering the selection criteria, The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (3, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0)365 model is found as appropriate for the studied temperature data on a daily basis. Finally, the selected model is utilized to estimate the next 50 days; after November 3, 2019, the temperature forecast showed an increasing trend. This observed trend provides an understanding of daily temperature change in the studied area for that specific period.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee
AU  - Khayrun Nahar Mitu
AU  - Khairul Hasan
Y1  - 2021/12/29
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 214
EP  - 221
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
AB  - Temperature is an essential weather component because of its tremendous impact on humans and the environment. As a result, one of the widely researched parts of global climate change study is temperature forecasting. This work analyzes trends and forecasts a temperature change to see the transient variations over time using daily temperature data from January 1, 2016 – November 3, 2019, collected from a weather station located at the Memphis International Airport. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test is used to detect time series analysis patterns as a non-parametric technique. The result from the test revealed that the temperature time series increased by 0.0030 °F almost every day, implying that the location is becoming hotter. The other method of analysis is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which fits temperature time series using its three standard processes of identification, diagnosis, and forecasting. Considering the selection criteria, The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (3, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0)365 model is found as appropriate for the studied temperature data on a daily basis. Finally, the selected model is utilized to estimate the next 50 days; after November 3, 2019, the temperature forecast showed an increasing trend. This observed trend provides an understanding of daily temperature change in the studied area for that specific period.
VL  - 9
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Author Information

Khayrun Nahar Mitu

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh
Khairul Hasan

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Khayrun Nahar Mitu, Khairul Hasan. (2021). Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, 9(6), 214-221. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

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ACS Style

Khayrun Nahar Mitu; Khairul Hasan. Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee. Int. J. Environ. Monit. Anal. 2021, 9(6), 214-221. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

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AMA Style

Khayrun Nahar Mitu, Khairul Hasan. Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee. Int J Environ Monit Anal. 2021;9(6):214-221. doi: 10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17,
  author = {Khayrun Nahar Mitu and Khairul Hasan},
  title = {Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee},
  journal = {International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis},
  volume = {9},
  number = {6},
  pages = {214-221},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijema.20210906.17},
  abstract = {Temperature is an essential weather component because of its tremendous impact on humans and the environment. As a result, one of the widely researched parts of global climate change study is temperature forecasting. This work analyzes trends and forecasts a temperature change to see the transient variations over time using daily temperature data from January 1, 2016 – November 3, 2019, collected from a weather station located at the Memphis International Airport. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test is used to detect time series analysis patterns as a non-parametric technique. The result from the test revealed that the temperature time series increased by 0.0030 °F almost every day, implying that the location is becoming hotter. The other method of analysis is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which fits temperature time series using its three standard processes of identification, diagnosis, and forecasting. Considering the selection criteria, The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (3, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0)365 model is found as appropriate for the studied temperature data on a daily basis. Finally, the selected model is utilized to estimate the next 50 days; after November 3, 2019, the temperature forecast showed an increasing trend. This observed trend provides an understanding of daily temperature change in the studied area for that specific period.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Modeling and Forecasting Daily Temperature Time Series in the Memphis, Tennessee
AU  - Khayrun Nahar Mitu
AU  - Khairul Hasan
Y1  - 2021/12/29
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
T2  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JF  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
JO  - International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis
SP  - 214
EP  - 221
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7667
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20210906.17
AB  - Temperature is an essential weather component because of its tremendous impact on humans and the environment. As a result, one of the widely researched parts of global climate change study is temperature forecasting. This work analyzes trends and forecasts a temperature change to see the transient variations over time using daily temperature data from January 1, 2016 – November 3, 2019, collected from a weather station located at the Memphis International Airport. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test is used to detect time series analysis patterns as a non-parametric technique. The result from the test revealed that the temperature time series increased by 0.0030 °F almost every day, implying that the location is becoming hotter. The other method of analysis is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which fits temperature time series using its three standard processes of identification, diagnosis, and forecasting. Considering the selection criteria, The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (3, 0, 0) (0, 1, 0)365 model is found as appropriate for the studied temperature data on a daily basis. Finally, the selected model is utilized to estimate the next 50 days; after November 3, 2019, the temperature forecast showed an increasing trend. This observed trend provides an understanding of daily temperature change in the studied area for that specific period.
VL  - 9
IS  - 6
ER  -

Copy | Download