Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model

Abdi Alemayehu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model

Abdi Alemayehu^*

Published in International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering (Volume 13, Issue 5)

Received: 6 November 2025 Accepted: 18 November 2025 Published: 26 December 2025

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Abstract

Export was to drive productive capacity of domestic businesses, employment generation, better source of resource allocation and distribution. As a result, export to be an engine for economic growth and development. The objective of this study was to identify determinants of export in Ethiopia for the period 1996-2023 by applying auto regressive distributive lag model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model. The Error Correction Term is negative (-0.889642) and is significant at 1% confidence level which indicates that any deviation from the long run equilibrium between variables is corrected about 88.96% each year. As evidenced from the estimation result of Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, institutional quality index, taxes on international trade and trade openness of Ethiopia positively and statistically significantly affect the Ethiopian exports performance both in short-run and long-run. However, first lag of real exchange rate positively and statistically significantly affect Ethiopian exports performance only short run. Hence, government should encourage infrastructures attract foreign investors to directing produce exportable goods, reducing export duties to improve competitiveness on international trade improving the institutional quality through respect rule of law, government effectiveness, legal voice and accountability, regulatory quality and lowering corruption boost Ethiopian exports performance.

Published in	International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering (Volume 13, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
Page(s)	84-93
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model, Bound Test, Error Correction, Institutional Quality Index, Taxes on International Trade, Export Performance, Ethiopia

References

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[3]	Abu Bakarr Tarawalie and Morris Conteh (2021). The Determinants of Export Performance in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Sierra Leone. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences. Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 1-6. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20210901.11
[4]	Bekele Wegi Feyisa (2021). Determinants of Ethiopia’s Coffee Bilateral Trade Flows: A panel Gravity Approach. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 9(1): 21-27, https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v9i1.21-27.3467
[5]	Deresse Dalango (2020). Determinants of Export Performance in Ethiopia (Time Series Analysis). European Journal of Business and Management, Vol.12, No.28, 6-12.
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[7]	Fisseha Seyoum (2021). Determinants of Ethiopian Flower Export Performance: The Case of Gravity Model Application. International Journal of Finance and Banking Research. Vol. 7, No. 5, pp. 101-110. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20210705.11
[8]	Getaneh Zelalem (2019). Assessment of Ethiopia’s Export Performance & Its Determinants. International Journal of Innovative Research and Practices, Vol.7, Issue 3, 1-16. www.forum4researchers.com
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[16]	Thida Oo, Jerome Kueh and Daw Tin Hla (2019). Determinants of Export Performance in ASEAN Region: Panel Data Analysis. International Business Research; Vol. 12, No. 8; 1-14. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v12n8p1
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APA Style

Alemayehu, A. (2025). Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model. International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering, 13(5), 84-93. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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ACS Style

Alemayehu, A. Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model. Int. J. Oil Gas Coal Eng. 2025, 13(5), 84-93. doi: 10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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AMA Style

Alemayehu A. Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model. Int J Oil Gas Coal Eng. 2025;13(5):84-93. doi: 10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12,
  author = {Abdi Alemayehu},
  title = {Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model},
  journal = {International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering},
  volume = {13},
  number = {5},
  pages = {84-93},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ogce.20251305.12},
  abstract = {Export was to drive productive capacity of domestic businesses, employment generation, better source of resource allocation and distribution. As a result, export to be an engine for economic growth and development. The objective of this study was to identify determinants of export in Ethiopia for the period 1996-2023 by applying auto regressive distributive lag model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model. The Error Correction Term is negative (-0.889642) and is significant at 1% confidence level which indicates that any deviation from the long run equilibrium between variables is corrected about 88.96% each year. As evidenced from the estimation result of Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, institutional quality index, taxes on international trade and trade openness of Ethiopia positively and statistically significantly affect the Ethiopian exports performance both in short-run and long-run. However, first lag of real exchange rate positively and statistically significantly affect Ethiopian exports performance only short run. Hence, government should encourage infrastructures attract foreign investors to directing produce exportable goods, reducing export duties to improve competitiveness on international trade improving the institutional quality through respect rule of law, government effectiveness, legal voice and accountability, regulatory quality and lowering corruption boost Ethiopian exports performance.},
 year = {2025}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model
AU  - Abdi Alemayehu
Y1  - 2025/12/26
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
T2  - International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering
SP  - 84
EP  - 93
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-7677
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
AB  - Export was to drive productive capacity of domestic businesses, employment generation, better source of resource allocation and distribution. As a result, export to be an engine for economic growth and development. The objective of this study was to identify determinants of export in Ethiopia for the period 1996-2023 by applying auto regressive distributive lag model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model. The Error Correction Term is negative (-0.889642) and is significant at 1% confidence level which indicates that any deviation from the long run equilibrium between variables is corrected about 88.96% each year. As evidenced from the estimation result of Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, institutional quality index, taxes on international trade and trade openness of Ethiopia positively and statistically significantly affect the Ethiopian exports performance both in short-run and long-run. However, first lag of real exchange rate positively and statistically significantly affect Ethiopian exports performance only short run. Hence, government should encourage infrastructures attract foreign investors to directing produce exportable goods, reducing export duties to improve competitiveness on international trade improving the institutional quality through respect rule of law, government effectiveness, legal voice and accountability, regulatory quality and lowering corruption boost Ethiopian exports performance.
VL  - 13
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Abdi Alemayehu

Department of Economics, Jinka University, Jinka, Ethiopia

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http://orcid.org/0009-0002-2831-6624

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Plain Text BibTeX RIS

APA Style

Alemayehu, A. (2025). Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model. International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering, 13(5), 84-93. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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ACS Style

Alemayehu, A. Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model. Int. J. Oil Gas Coal Eng. 2025, 13(5), 84-93. doi: 10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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AMA Style

Alemayehu A. Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model. Int J Oil Gas Coal Eng. 2025;13(5):84-93. doi: 10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12,
  author = {Abdi Alemayehu},
  title = {Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model},
  journal = {International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering},
  volume = {13},
  number = {5},
  pages = {84-93},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ogce.20251305.12},
  abstract = {Export was to drive productive capacity of domestic businesses, employment generation, better source of resource allocation and distribution. As a result, export to be an engine for economic growth and development. The objective of this study was to identify determinants of export in Ethiopia for the period 1996-2023 by applying auto regressive distributive lag model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model. The Error Correction Term is negative (-0.889642) and is significant at 1% confidence level which indicates that any deviation from the long run equilibrium between variables is corrected about 88.96% each year. As evidenced from the estimation result of Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, institutional quality index, taxes on international trade and trade openness of Ethiopia positively and statistically significantly affect the Ethiopian exports performance both in short-run and long-run. However, first lag of real exchange rate positively and statistically significantly affect Ethiopian exports performance only short run. Hence, government should encourage infrastructures attract foreign investors to directing produce exportable goods, reducing export duties to improve competitiveness on international trade improving the institutional quality through respect rule of law, government effectiveness, legal voice and accountability, regulatory quality and lowering corruption boost Ethiopian exports performance.},
 year = {2025}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Determinants of Ethiopia Export Performances: Evidence from an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model
AU  - Abdi Alemayehu
Y1  - 2025/12/26
PY  - 2025
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
T2  - International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering
JF  - International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering
JO  - International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering
SP  - 84
EP  - 93
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-7677
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ogce.20251305.12
AB  - Export was to drive productive capacity of domestic businesses, employment generation, better source of resource allocation and distribution. As a result, export to be an engine for economic growth and development. The objective of this study was to identify determinants of export in Ethiopia for the period 1996-2023 by applying auto regressive distributive lag model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model. The Error Correction Term is negative (-0.889642) and is significant at 1% confidence level which indicates that any deviation from the long run equilibrium between variables is corrected about 88.96% each year. As evidenced from the estimation result of Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model with bound testing approach of co-integration and error correction model, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, institutional quality index, taxes on international trade and trade openness of Ethiopia positively and statistically significantly affect the Ethiopian exports performance both in short-run and long-run. However, first lag of real exchange rate positively and statistically significantly affect Ethiopian exports performance only short run. Hence, government should encourage infrastructures attract foreign investors to directing produce exportable goods, reducing export duties to improve competitiveness on international trade improving the institutional quality through respect rule of law, government effectiveness, legal voice and accountability, regulatory quality and lowering corruption boost Ethiopian exports performance.
VL  - 13
IS  - 5
ER  -

Copy | Download