| Peer-Reviewed

One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine

Received: 22 November 2017     Accepted: 4 December 2017     Published: 3 January 2018
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.

Published in Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research (Volume 1, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
Page(s) 113-116
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2018. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Coronary Heart Disease, Prediction, Epidemiology, Markov Chain, Monte Carlo Methods

References
[1] Kovalenko V. M., Dorogiy A. P. Cardiovascular diseases: medical and social significance and strategy of cardiology development in Ukraine // Ukrainian Cardiology Journal. App. 3, 2016, pp. 5-14
[2] Beck J. R., Pauker S. G. The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis// Med Decis Making. Vol. 3, 1983, No. 4, pp. 419-434
[3] Sonnenberg F. A., Beck J. R. Markov Models in Medical Decision Making: A Practical Guide// Med Decis Making. Vol. 13, 1993, pp. 322-338
[4] Schaefer A. J., Bailey M. D., Shechter S. M., Roberts M. S. Modeling Medical Treatment Using Markov Decision Processes// Operations Research And Health Care, 2005, pp. 598-616
[5] Sato R. C., Zouain D. M. Markov Models in health care // Einstein, 2010, No 8, pp. 376-379
[6] Hazen G. Cohort Decomposition for Markov Cost-Effectiveness Models // Medical Decision Making, 2011, Vol. 31, Iss. 1
[7] Chikina N. A., Antonova I. V. Risk prognosis in medical insurance system of professional pathology // Herald of the National Technical University "KhPI". Subject issue: Information Science and Modelling, 2013, No 39 (1012), pp. 199–205
[8] Gandzyuk V. A. An analysis of the incidence of coronary heart disease in Ukraine // Ukrainian Cardiology Journal. 2014, No. 3, pp. 45-52
[9] Database of the population of Ukraine. Mortality rates by sex and age groups
[10] Sokolov M. Yu. Register of percutaneous interventions // Heart and blood vessels, 2014, No. 3, pp. 10—23
[11] Terenda N. O. Main tendencies and predictive estimations of general and primary incidence of coronary heart disease in Ukraine // Bulletin of social hygiene and health protection organizations of Ukraine, 2016, No. 3 (69), pp. 31-35
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk. (2018). One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research, 1(4), 113-116. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Pavlo Ivanchuk; Maria Ivanchuk. One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiol. Cardiovasc. Res. 2018, 1(4), 113-116. doi: 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Pavlo Ivanchuk, Maria Ivanchuk. One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine. Cardiol Cardiovasc Res. 2018;1(4):113-116. doi: 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13,
      author = {Pavlo Ivanchuk and Maria Ivanchuk},
      title = {One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine},
      journal = {Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research},
      volume = {1},
      number = {4},
      pages = {113-116},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ccr.20170104.13},
      abstract = {Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.},
     year = {2018}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine
    AU  - Pavlo Ivanchuk
    AU  - Maria Ivanchuk
    Y1  - 2018/01/03
    PY  - 2018
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
    T2  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
    JF  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
    JO  - Cardiology and Cardiovascular Research
    SP  - 113
    EP  - 116
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2578-8914
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ccr.20170104.13
    AB  - Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.
    VL  - 1
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Internal Medicine, Physical Rehabilitation, Sports Medicine and Physical Training Department, Higher State Educational Establishment of Ukraine “Bucovinian State Medical University”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine

  • Biological Physics and Medical Informatics Department, Higher State Educational Establishment of Ukraine “Bucovinian State Medical University”, Chernivtsi, Ukraine

  • Sections