5. Theoretical Models: The Four-pillar Model for Adaptive Capacities
Quickly after the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, Rwanda embarked on peacebuilding efforts. At early stages, however, neither the paths to go through were clear enough nor was it possible to predict their pace. Minimalist perspectives would only have argued for proportional pace to the length and breadth of genocidal violence across specific regions. Paradoxically, however, efforts made in the post-genocide Rwanda nearly followed balanced patterns and variations in the progress made are little, if any. In line with existing literature, citizens are acquiring necessary adaptive capacities aimed to support community resilience and easy adjustment after disturbance or adversity
| [13] | Norris, H Fan, Stevens, P. Stevens, Pfefferbaum, Betty, Wyche, F. Karen, Pfefferbaum, L Rose. Community Resilience as a Methaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. Am J Community Psychology 41 (2008): 127-150. |
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, referred to as genocidal violence perpetrated against the Tutsi in the context of this study. As community resilience goes, three decades after genocide are good start for the “time required for the system to return to equilibrium once displaced
| [13] | Norris, H Fan, Stevens, P. Stevens, Pfefferbaum, Betty, Wyche, F. Karen, Pfefferbaum, L Rose. Community Resilience as a Methaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. Am J Community Psychology 41 (2008): 127-150. |
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”. Conceptually, that is all about resilience! Hence, community resilience defines a process through which adaptive capabilities are acquired.
It is not accidental that the term resilience is compounded with community. To Pfefferbaum et al. (2005) and Rose (2004), view community resilience as far beyond a collection of resilient individuals. As they argue, the “whole is more than the sum of its parts
| [13] | Norris, H Fan, Stevens, P. Stevens, Pfefferbaum, Betty, Wyche, F. Karen, Pfefferbaum, L Rose. Community Resilience as a Methaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. Am J Community Psychology 41 (2008): 127-150. |
[13]
”. Therefore, to support Brown and Kulig (1996), “People in communities are resilient together
| [13] | Norris, H Fan, Stevens, P. Stevens, Pfefferbaum, Betty, Wyche, F. Karen, Pfefferbaum, L Rose. Community Resilience as a Methaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness. Am J Community Psychology 41 (2008): 127-150. |
[13]
”. Like any disaster or adversity of same scale as the 1994 Genocide that befell the Tutsi in Rwanda, it has emerged that the victims ‘collectively experienced’ strong hardships. Thus, the post-genocide Rwanda has ever called for collective resilience. Different models are used to analyze the acquisition of adaptive capacities regarded as strong base for such resilience. This paper chose to use the Norris et al. (2008)’s four-pillar model to reflect on the specific case of Rwanda. As this model goes, the (1) Economic Development, (2) Social Capital, (3) Information and Communication, and (4) Community Competence form the strategy base for community equilibrium.
This paper does not systematically analyze all the four pillars of this model. For methodological convenience, it sought the support of a few strategic variables selected from the
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs for this purpose: (1) Food security, (2) Employment opportunity, (3) Quality shelter, and (4) Clean water supply. The intent was to lean from these variables and draw tentative conclusions on the acquisition level of adaptive capacities in the post-genocide Rwanda. Irrespective of possible limitations, available data on these variables aided this analysis to grow. Strong recognition goes to the lack of specific data at the lowest community levels. Thus, it is difficult to establish useful baselines for the units established for analysis; little is known, if at all, about their pre-genocide situation. This is key methodological deadlock!
Alternatively, this paper analyses the progress made at sector level and draws conclusions vis-à-vis national, province, and district levels. Across Gatsibo district, Kiramuruzi, Kiziguro, and Murambi sectors are selected from former Murambi commune for an intensive examination of their recovery progress from genocide wounds. The population share of these sectors amounts up to 26% of the total district population (551,164). Respectively, they represent 73.2%, 85.6%, and 100% and predominantly rate as rural areas
| [10] | Ministry of Economic Planning and Finance. Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022: Gatsibo District Profile. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, 2023b. |
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.
In as far as the above-selected case studies are concerned, discussions about community resilience in post-genocide era inevitably reflects the legacies of deadly devastations that only turned Rwanda into ashes in 1994. Wider gaps in human needs emerged and, as a result, relevant partners intervened to boost community resilience. The Maslow’s hierarchy of needs serves as an analytical tool used to grasp the outcomes of subsequent interventions. It is a five-tier model of human needs that collapse into three categories - that is ‘basic needs,’ ‘psychological needs’ and ‘self-fulfillment needs.’ Lower categories serve as necessary prerequisites for the next levels to exist. Thus, this model is fit to benchmark the levels of community resilience in the administrative sectors selected as case studies. A strategic emphasis is put on the category of ‘basic needs’ with an intent to draw conclusions on the potentials it carries to support ‘physiological needs’ and ‘safety and security.’
5.1. Physiological Needs
Existing terminologies view physiological needs as biological requirements - such as air, food, drinking, shelter, clothing, sex, and sleep - for human survival. Total or partial deprivation puts life in danger. For methodological convenience, this paper does not discuss all these components. Strong emphasis is rather put on a few components, out of the list, most likely to shed light on the case studies.
5.1.1. Food Security
Worldwide, food security is key to the survival of all human beings. Its scarcity or total absence, drastically affects the quality of human lives. It takes different natures and its satisfaction remains ‘relative’ in practice. Obviously, it depends much on residence arrangements. For instance, Rwanda has been predominantly rural country where agrarian activities and livestock husbandry largely feed citizens most. The first RPHC 1978 revealed that 94.4% (6.763.612) of total population (7.162.565) resided in rural areas and derived livelihood from those sources
| [11] | Ministry of Planning. Rwanda Population and Housing General Census of August 15th, 1991: Final Results. National Service for Census, 1994. |
[11]
. Until the 5
th RPHC 2022, this trend persisted and sustained some decreases in percentages of rural population: 72.1% (9,545,149) were rural population while 27.9% (3,701,245) resided in urban areas. Such decreases find explanation in the growth of urbanization formerly estimated at 5.6%, as the 2
nd RPHC 1991 established. Urbanization pulled many out of agriculture who subsequently derived livelihood from non-farming activities. However, food insecurity remained present because of scarce and poorly fertilized land. Gaps between population growth and arable land consistently widened over time. Thus, embracing new technologies became not an option, but an obligation, to cope with this trend. Small-scale professional activities came into existence and non-farming activities subsequently contributed to citizens’ livelihood. The technologies performed through an array of value chains and demonstrated higher capacities to rise food quantity and quality. Eventually, this move has marked a smooth transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture.
During the 19
th National Umushyikirano Council held in January 2024, the green revolution won a lot of credits and was depicted as foundational basis for emerging technologies. Notably, the latter included terraces (1,147,434 hectors), irrigation (48,000 hectors in year 2017 and 71,000 hectors in year 2023), and fertilization (32 Kg per hector in year 2017 against 70.3 Kg per hector in year 2023). Satisfactorily, they freed wider arable land and supported the growth of one-crop system on larger scale. Similarly, livestock husbandry quickly modernized and the productivity increased from 700,000 liters of milk in year 2017 up to 1,000,000 liters in 2023. A smooth transition from the search for subsistence to small-scale industrialization is in good process and likely to provide rural dwellers with cash
| [14] | Republic of Rwanda, Outcomes of the First National Strategy for Transformation (NST1): 2017-2023. National Umushyikirano Council (23-24 January 2024), Kigali, 2024. |
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. Land productivity benefits the support of infrastructure network that ensures delivery system at a reasonable cost and serves a multitude of potential consumers
| [1] | Agénor, Pierre Richard. ‘A Theory of Infrastructure-led Development.’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, no. 5 (May 2010): 932-950. |
[1]
. Efforts so far made have greater leverage in this direction and guide the reflection into the case studies.
The Eastern Province, in general, and Gatsibo district, in particular, are consecutively home to the case studies and significantly show the propensity to serve numerous potential consumers. At this district, for instance, 78.5% (106, 895) of private households daily engage in agriculture activities. It counts 72.0% (98,023) of the households in crop farming while 53.7% (73,199) invest in livestock husbandry. Although Gatsibo district predominantly lives on agriculture activities, there are important variations across sectors under study. Comparatively, Murambi (88%) highly ranks in terms of agricultural households than Kiramuruzi (76.8%) and Kiziguro (76.5%). Similarly, Murambi (83.3%) highly competes Kiziguro (70.4%) and Kiramuruzi (70.2%) in as far as crop farming is concerned. Maize, rice, sorghum, wheat, beans, soybeans, cassava, sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes, and yams and taro satisfactorily support food security in this geographical boundary. In priority order, the majority of the total private households (10,194) grows maize (5,586), beans (5,575) and fruits (5,014) in Kiramuruzi sector. The same order applies to Kiziguro sector (with 9,993 total private households) where maize (5,129) comes first, beans (5,042) second, and fruits (4,056) third with remarkable difference. Conversely, in Murambi sector (with 9,225 total private households), beans (5,969) rank first, fruits (5,794), and maize (4,600) lastly follows also with remarkable difference.
Agriculture activities run hand in hand with livestock husbandry which has become another avenue for food security. Cows (925,808 HHs), goats (643,420 HHs), chicken (396,161HHs) and pigs (494,305 HHs) are nationwide examples of the types of livestock most privileged in private households. The Eastern Province has important shares distributed as follows: goats (241,558 HHs), cows (166,551 HHs), pigs (78,815 HHs), and chickens (119,812 HHs). The historical context of Rwanda clearly explains these competitive shares across provinces. This region became the home of many Rwandan refugees previously repatriated from Uganda in 1994. Upon arrival, the land was predominantly free and fit for grazing pastures. As a coincidence, most returnees repatriated together with their cattle and subsequently perpetuated an existing culture of cattle breeding in this region.
Particularly, Gatsibo district was widely known as land of cattle. Until he 5th RPHC 2022, this perception prevailed and could explain huge amounts of livestock available. Private households predominantly engaged in raising cows (40,210 HHs), goats (39,830 HHs), pigs (12,099 HHs) and chickens (18,131 HHs). The sectors under study have remarkable shares in these figures. In Murambi, for instance, private households comparatively took the lead across sectors: cows (3,528 HHs), goats (3,412 HHs), pigs (1,084 HHs), and chickens (1,146 HHs). On chickens, however, Murambi sector (1,146 HHs) rates low as compared to Kiramuruzi sector (1,418 HHs). Also, private households in Kiramuruzi turned second in the raising of cows (2,069 HHs) and goats (3,116 HHs) while pigs (848 HHs) comparatively rated low across sectors. Finally, private households in Kiziguro took the third ranking with cows (2,493 HHs), goats (2,208 HHs), pigs (904 HHs), and chickens (1,012 HHs). Across sectors, the private households involved in livestock husbandry own an average close to 20% of existing types of livestock in Gatsibo district. In same district, the distributions of such types ranked as follows: cows (21.1%), goats (21.9%), pigs (23.4%), and chickens (19.7%). At the level of the case studies, Murambi (63.6%) still competes Kiramuruzi (51.2%) and Kiziguro (47.8%) vis-à-vis livestock husbandry.
On average, the case studies statistically ranked higher than the host district against all the variables measured. This fact is an indication of fair ranking in the sources from which citizens derive livelihood. Put another way, these case studies are particularly gifted with enough and diversified food required for food security. The ranking gives a feel of citizens’ satisfaction for food security though there is no baseline available to serve as reference for the progress made in the post-genocide Rwanda. The trend in data equally informs high-level equity in service delivery to citizens and, hence, equal chance to access food security.
5.1.2. Quality Shelter
Shelter is equally vital need to human beings and another key component of physiological needs. The 1990 hostilities not only culminated into the loss of human lives, but also targeted strategic infrastructures. Demolishment nearly turned Rwanda into ashes. An already poorly designed housing extremely suffered heavy devastations that irrefutably marked an extreme level of human barbary. The majority of houses were washed away and many others left in poor conditions. All the benefits of the year 1977 were completely made inexistant.
Sooner after the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, the need for shelter was made a prerequisite for life to go on. Emerging technologies gave strong impetus to infrastructure development and, as a result, housing design grew improving. They improved some houses that still bore grass roofs and mud walls. Equally, the government of Rwanda spearheaded nationwide awareness campaigns and, in turn, increasingly led citizens to aim at decent houses constructed in solid materials. Currently, the majority of houses with iron sheets on the roofs and mud walls have flourished and, gradually, some residence houses are being built into solid construction materials.
The 5th RPHC 2022 has established a remarkable progress made over the last three decades: 98.9% of the total population (13,246,394) own individual private households after widespread demolishing of houses. Extra efforts need only to focus on quality improvement among low-income social categories. This recovery process finds remote roots in heavy historical background of Rwanda. Until the post-genocide time, to start, housing regulations did nearly not apply to daily practices. Dispersed or isolated habitat was predominantly the norm. This new era came up with master plans and, as a result, each single Rwanda piece of land is assigned a particular use. Efficient use of land has keenly considered the prescribed style of habitat.
Like most parts of Rwanda, the 5th RPHC 2022 predominantly associates the Eastern Province with ‘planned rural settlement’ also known as Umudugudu settlement (86.5%). ‘Dispersed or isolated habitat’ is low-level represented (7.4%). A similar trend widely prevails at both Gatsibo district and sector levels. Gatsibo district registered the predominance of Umudugudu settlement (80.5%) while only 13.8% of total population belong to ‘dispersed or isolated housing.’ To some extent, the sectors under study roughly reflect the district-level estimates. In view of ‘planned rural settlement’ and ‘dispersed or isolated habitat’, exceptions are made to Kiziguro (87.5% and 9.7% respectively) and Kiramuruzi (84.1% and 11.3% respectively) followed by Murambi (80.4% and 15% respectively) whose records nearly equal to the district-level estimates. In the end, the ownership level of private household is satisfactory.
Moreover, the 5th RPHC 2022 established non-negligeable numbers of tenants though it remained silent on whether these numbers apply to natives or to immigrant civil servants. Importantly, it does not indicate if they signify people owning extra private houses they release for rental returns. Whichever case may be, findings highlight that citizens own 79.1% of housing units across Gatsibo district while 15.2% exercise a tenant status. At sector level, Murambi (86.6%) competes Kiziguro (74.6%) and Kiramuruzi (73.8%), and all together surpass the Eastern Province average (72.1%) of individuals owning house units. They are also slightly close to the district-level average (79.1%). The quality of housing units can only be an indication of value addition to the above-stated averages.
In most case study sectors, housing units are predominantly covered by iron sheets (99.9%). The average (99.9%) is far higher than that of national level (74.1%) and is almost equal to that of the Eastern Province (98.9%) and of Gatsibo district (98.8%). Across these administrative hierarchies, moreover, ‘sundried bricks with cement’ are the materials least used on walls: 36.3% nationwide, 36.4% in the Eastern Province and 30.1% in Gasabo district. The same as sector level - that is Kiziguro (28.9%), Kiramuruzi (27.2%), and Murambi (12.6%) - the proportions are still below the mean. Against the use of ‘wood with mud and cement’ on walls, the same trend applies to Kiziguro (15.1%), Kiramuruzi (14.1%) and Murambi (12.2%). Citizens still use most the ‘wood with mud and cement’ and ‘wood with mud without cement.’ Across case study sectors, Kiziguro (15.1%) and Murambi (47.5%) respectively rate higher.
In view of this background, impressive progresses are registered though poor sanitary conditions (e.g., Jiggers) still fuel high risks. This statement finds legitimacy in the fact that the materials for the floor remain rudimentary in most housing units. Lower averages at national (60.4%), Eastern Province (60.9%), and Gatsibo district (67%) hierarchies are supportive facts. In addition, the earth is most frequently used material on the floor of the housing units. In Gatsibo district alone, very few housing units use cement (22.7%) and dung hardened (9.3%) relatively at small scale. Across the case study sectors, notably Murambi (18.9%), Kiziguro (18.4%) and Kiramuruzi (15.9%), the use of dung hardened is evenly recorded with minor average differences. Also, low-level consumption of electrical energy lags behind scarce numbers of modernized housing units. Existing power infrastructures did not support the modernization of housing units to expected levels. In view of connection of private households to the national grid, the records registered in the case studies perfectly follow the trends reported nationwide (52.5%), at Eastern Province (47.2%) and Gatsibo district (35.6%) levels.
For instance, ‘grid connected households’ rank least in Murambi (28%) after Kiramuruzi (49.5%) and Kiziguro (50.1%). These sectors are largely well positioned: their respective records are slightly higher than those registered in upper layers of administration. Nevertheless, energy consumption remains set for restricted uses. At district level, 48.8% of the population of Gatsibo use electricity as source for lighting. The cost of boiling water, and of smoky traditional fuels such as wood, crop residues, and charcoal for cooking remains high. It reflects the failure in “reducing indoor air pollution and the incidence of respiratory illnesses [while] access to electricity…helps to improve hygiene and health
| [1] | Agénor, Pierre Richard. ‘A Theory of Infrastructure-led Development.’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, no. 5 (May 2010): 932-950. |
[1]
”. This challenge remains shared among most low-income countries in general and the sub-Saharan Africa in particular. Until 2010, less than one in five Africans had access to electricity
| [1] | Agénor, Pierre Richard. ‘A Theory of Infrastructure-led Development.’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, no. 5 (May 2010): 932-950. |
[1]
. Similarly, Gatsibo district-level connection to the national grid (35.6%) is still low, with Kiziguro (59.2%), Kiramuruzi (57.1%), and Murambi (54.1%) sectors having important shares and diverse uses of electricity.
Beside lighting, electricity supports the growing ownership and use of electronics devices in the Eastern region. In Gatsibo district, for instance, examples highlight the possession of radio (76.5%), mobile phones (71.4%), smartphones (12.9%), TV (6.3%), and computers (1.3%) in private households. Comparatively, radios and mobile phones emerged the most popular devices. At sector level, private households possess radios as follows: Kiramuruzi (79.2%) takes the lead while Kiziguro (77.3%) and Murambi (71.6%) respectively follow. Against the possession of mobile phones, Kiramuruzi (75.4%) similarly competes both Kiziguro (73.4%) and Murambi (65.8%). These devices have created the need for maintenance service and, hence, an opportunity for small scale employment.
Among other benefits, the electricity connectivity is useful for internet access that supports service delivery nationwide. Therefore, this internet access is regarded as key government priority. The 5th RPHC 2022 established that 22.2% of private households nationwide count at least one member with access to internet. The Eastern Province alone has the share of 18.1% while Gatsibo district is 15.5% connected to internet. At sector level, Kiramuruzi (21.5%) is a leading consumer while Kiziguro (18.1%) and Murambi (9.2%) consecutively follow. Irrespective of minor differences involved, these sectors have fair positioning with regard to internet access in Gatsibo district. There might have been remarkable increases in these figures after the government provided local health volunteers, and others, with smartphones to ease the reporting on their assignments.
To sum up, electricity connectivity has long served as key pillar for quality life in many fields. Though the coverage level still looks small, the benefits have fairly emerged satisfactory in view of detailed statistics earlier presented. However, access to electricity is not yet affordable to many citizens to satisfy their needs. It nearly doesn’t support cooking activities. The 5th RPHC 2022 states that firewood is the predominant source of energy for cooking: 76.1% in Rwanda, 83.8% in Eastern Province, and 89.7% in Gatsibo district. Across sectors, Murambi (94.1%%), Kiziguro (88.7%), and Kiramuruzi (86.3%) reflect the same trend. As implications, firewood searching opens the ground for environment degradation through excessive deforestation. This context offers an explanation to numerous disasters Rwanda previously faced. Since children mostly engage in firewood searching, school dropouts might follow. Finally, this situation keeps women busy with domestic assignments and is likely to hold them far away from public spheres.
5.1.3. Clean Water Supply
Like food, and shelter, water is fundamental and vital necessity for human beings and wild and domestic animals to survive. The existing literature goes far to ascertain that “Access to clean water and sanitation helps to improve health and thereby productivity
| [1] | Agénor, Pierre Richard. ‘A Theory of Infrastructure-led Development.’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, no. 5 (May 2010): 932-950. |
[1]
”. Thus, scarce or total absence of water terribly puts life of all the living at high risk. This statement strongly supports the campaigning slogan from Rwanda according to which ‘clean water is a source of life’ where it has remained one of key driving forces for citizens wellbeing. Existing water sources and the minimum requirement of standards serve a basis for conclusions on the validity such a slogan carries.
The ‘improved drinking water sources’ are identified as the most water sources used in Rwanda. They include mineral water, internal pipe born water, pipe born water in compound, pipe water from the neighbor, and public tap out of the compound. Nationwide, the 5th RPHC 2022 established 82.3% representation of these sources. Only 17.7% of private households used ‘unimproved drinking water source.’ This average appears comparatively low but remains qualitatively far bigger and is likely to drive communicative diseases. Only wider coverage may prevent this likelihood. Irrespective of the above-stated gap, lower levels of administrative hierarchies slightly deviate from the national average with marginal differences.
For instance, the Eastern Province (81.1%) and Gatsibo district (78.4%) provide significant facts to portray high-level equity in the distribution of improved drinking water sources. The same goes at sector level: Murambi (88.7%) and Kiziguro (80.5%) are close to the national average (82.3%). Only Kiramuruzi (51.2%) visibly skewed from this trend. Almost half of its private households (48.8%) use ‘unimproved drinking water sources.’ There would be high risk for communicative diseases to erupt if any catalyst emerged. Comparatively, urban areas (92%) use ‘improved drinking water sources’ than rural areas (76.8%) do. As earlier said, rural areas (23.2%) run higher risks for diseases eruption than in urban areas (8%). Policy-making efforts need to keep vigilant eyes with a view to bridge existing gaps.
Against geographical settings, however, the cases under study challenge the patterns earlier identified. They variably rate high as rural sectors and, as a paradox, they highly use ‘improved drinking water sources.’ Depicted as 100% rural sector, Murambi (88.7%) is leading in the use of ‘improved drinking water sources.’ Kiziguro (80.5%) follows though it is viewed as 85.6% rural sector. Kiramuruzi is comparatively less rural sector (73.2%) and, according to earlier patterns, was expected to score higher. To the contrary, it rated 51.2% in the use of ‘improved drinking water sources.’ This is 37.5% away from Murambi initially depicted to be 100% rural sector. A separate discussion would need to carefully go deeper into the historical background and socio-political governance of former Murambi commune to understand this pattern.
5.2. Safety and Security Needs
Earlier discussions fully documented some indicators of ongoing recovery process from Rwanda’s dark past. A foundation is strongly laid and supports sustained transition towards safety and security needs. The next discussions analyze the potentials available to ensure the likelihood for Rwanda to control its destiny.
5.2.1. Employment Opportunities
To catalyze “significant effects on local land values and employment
| [4] | Haughwout, F Andrew. State Infrastructure, the Distribution of Jobs, and Productivity (Second draft). Federal Reserve Bank, 2000. |
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”, some theoretical models strongly support government-funded infrastructure investments as key factor. It emerges that ‘
public investment’ also known as ‘
public works' remarkably results in well-focused decentralization of employment. Across advanced, emerging, and low-income developing economies, previous attempts correlated public investment in the infrastructure with direct employment development. In most cases, electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation served as entry points for their analytical stands. For instance, the International Labor Organization
| [6] | International Labour Organisation. ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the World of Work. 7th Edition, Briefing note. International Labour Organization, 2021. |
[6]
observed as follows: “one percentage point of global GDP in additional spending on public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone…
| [12] | Moszoro, Mariam. The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment. International Monetary Fund, 2021. |
[12]
”. Equally, the International Monetary Fund
| [7] | International Monetary Fund. Policies for the Recovery: Fiscal Monitor. International Monetary Fund, 2020. |
[7]
goes far to estimate the creation of 20-33 million jobs as total impact of one percent of GDP. Upon spending US$1 million on public infrastructure, the number of jobs created also varies from advanced economies (3-6.6), emerging market economies (10.4-17.2) to low-income developing countries (16-30.2)
| [12] | Moszoro, Mariam. The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment. International Monetary Fund, 2021. |
[12]
.
This theorizing applied to Rwanda in many respects; a standalone reflection would gather macro-level data to support this statement. Strategically, this paper deliberately chose to stick on the micro-level growth of employment. In Rwanda, agricultural activities and livestock husbandry have counted as major professions. The 2
nd RPHC 1991 established that 94.5% (6,766,357) lived in rural areas while 5.5% (391,194) lived in urban cities. Only an estimate of 49.9% (3,569,436) of the total population (7,157,551) was economically active. Importantly, 90.9% (6,506,214) of economically active population engaged in agriculture, livestock husbandry, fishing and or hunting. Out of this proportion, 66% (4,294,101) were self-employed and independent agriculturalists where 25.5% (1,094,996) rendered family support free of charge. Among Kigali City dwellers, 20% (1,301,243) of active population derived the living from agriculture. Also, 7.6% of active population earned a monthly salary while only 0.1% of the same population were employers. Due to almost inexistant informal sector and weak formal sector, citizens hardly had their destiny under control. In similar cases, earlier studies argued for green investments and city development as options aimed to boost the employment opportunities
| [12] | Moszoro, Mariam. The Direct Employment Impact of Public Investment. International Monetary Fund, 2021. |
[12]
. Accordingly, previous discussions have depicted the benefits of green revolution as strong basis for emerging technologies in Rwanda.
Otherwise, the 5
th RPHC 2022 established remarkable changes in the ratio of Rwandan urban-rural residence arrangements and in the nature of employment. For instance, 72.1% of the population live in rural settings against 27.9% living in urban areas. An increase from 5.5% (see the 2
nd RPHC 1991) to 27.9% leads the Ministry of Economic Planning and Finance to view Rwandan population as “rapidly transforming from predominantly rural to a large urban population
| [9] | Ministry of Economic Planning and Finance. The Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, 2023a. |
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” and carrying important implications. The urban area has truly qualified as physical, social and economic environment: “Urban area is in most of the cases characterized by high concentration of population, diversified economic activities, many and better infrastructures
| [9] | Ministry of Economic Planning and Finance. The Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, 2023a. |
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”. As the population rapidly embraces urban style of life, economic activities transform from farming to non-farming activities and support financial security among citizens. With regard to earlier paragraphs, the growth of power and water sanitation infrastructures equally pointed in this direction as they leverage opportunities for non-farming job creation.
5.2.2. Current Status of Employment in the Case Studies
Job creation has become key benchmark for financial security in growing societies. In fragile societies, it protects non-employed working age groups (i.e., the youth) from falling prey for manipulations. In Rwanda, the employment to working age population ratio translates “…the capacity of the economy to provide employment to a growing population. A decline in the employment to population ratio is often regarded as an indicator of economic slowdown and a decline in total employment as an indicator of a more severe economic downturn
| [10] | Ministry of Economic Planning and Finance. Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022: Gatsibo District Profile. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, 2023b. |
[10]
”. How does this theoretical assumption translate into practice? How do the cases studies align with the national-level employment? This is only a sample of questions whose answers can shed light on the progress made towards financial security.
To start, the nationwide employment to population ratio amounts to 45.9% and, according to the 5th RPHC 2022, is lagging behind the acceptable mean, with varying levels in urban (53.5%) and rural (42%) areas. These variations relatively portray the spatial distribution of Rwandans predominantly viewed as rural (72.1%), which similarly applies at province level. The employment to population ratio is slightly higher (47.9%) in the Eastern Province than the national-level ratio. There are only minor differences between urban (53.1%) and rural (46.5%) settings. The employment to population ratio in Gatsibo district slightly surpasses the earlier-established national-level ratio. Largely known as predominantly rural areas (90%) and less urban areas (10%), this district recorded 48.8% of the employment to population ratio. Geographically, urban areas (57.5%) still compete rural areas (47.9%) though the differences are comparatively low.
Even if the differences are quantitatively small, they still bear a qualitative argument of major importance. These differences point in a ‘positive’ direction of the employment to population ratio. Luckily, both the Eastern Province (47.9%) and Gatsibo district (48.8%) perfectly align with the national-level record (45.9%). Positive improvements in the national-level of employment to population ratio would reflect visible impact on lower administrative hierarchies: the minor differences simply portray early stages of Rwandan economy to fully provide employment to a growing population. There is a need for steady efforts aimed to sustain an existing trend. ‘How do the cases under study fall in this trend?’ is another legitimate question of interest at this level.
In the first place, these case studies are dichotomized around urban and rural settings. Kiramuruzi (73.2%), Kiziguro (85.6%) and Murambi (100%) are highly rural sectors and proportionally associate with low-level employment to population ratio. Fortunately, there are potentials available for further employability opportunities at all the hierarchies of administration. In addition to the above-mentioned low-level ratio, available data are not sufficiently detailed and fit enough to establish the sector level of employment to population ratio across these cases. Available data for Gatsibo district, where the same case studies belong, can only be disaggregated and used to draw relevant conclusions. As it emerges, an increase in ratio was established from age group 16-19 to 35-44 across males and females, while it decreased from age group 45-49 to 85 years and above because of retirement.
Males (70.6%) found in the age group 30-34 recorded the highest employment to population ratio while females (53.4%) from age group 40-44 followed. It is difficult to disaggregate these district-level age groups and their 202 corresponding employment to population ratios into sector-level shares. Only the 5th RPHC 2022 came up with rough estimates. It indicates 40.3% and 42% as the employment to population ratio among the age group of the youth (16-30), respectively at national and province levels. Out of 42%, Gatsibo district alone owns the share of 42.3%. Unlike Murambi sector (40.2%), Kiramuruzi (43.4%) and Kiziguro (41.5%) sectors slightly scored higher than the country’s mean (that is, 40.3%). Above all, the employment to population for Kiramuruzi sector (43.4%) is slightly higher than that of host district (i.e. Gatsibo). In many regards, the employment to population ratios in the case studies are evenly distributed. Therefore, the employment to population ratio in the case studies relatively aligns with the pace found at national, province and district levels. The youth demonstrated remarkable engagement in the search for employment opportunities and job creation.
Among youth aged 16-30, for instance, 56.4% are currently employees, with 33.9% self-employed in Gatsibo district. While self-employment was made a key pillar for poverty reduction policy in Rwanda, 33.9% is good start of relief for the government, widely understood as major employer. Across case studies, Murambi (43.6%) counts the biggest share of self-employed youth while Kiramuruzi (33.8%) and Kiziguro (31.8%) respectively follow. Similarly, there are little differences in shares of self-employment between Gatsibo district (33.9%), the Eastern Province (29.8%), and the national level (25.5%). Against these statistical figures, the case studies have marked visible progress in financial security after the 1994 ashes and deep devastations. Therefore, a good start towards community resilience is given a chance to rise out of well-thought support to local initiatives.