Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was calibrated and evaluated to simulate maize (zea mays L.) var. BH660 under current and future climate in Ethiopia under moist mid-highlands of Ethiopia around Ambo Zuria district. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed Maize yield responses. Simulations was made using downscaled weather data from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median Maize yields. Five GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and decrease.
Published in | International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (Volume 1, Issue 1) |
DOI | 10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13 |
Page(s) | 14-20 |
Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2017. Published by Science Publishing Group |
BH660, Climate Change, DSSAT, Ethiopia, Maize and RCPs
[1] | Araya, A., & Stroosnijder, L. (2011). Assessing drought risk and irrigation need in northern Ethiopia. Agricultural and Forest meteorology, 151 (4), 425-436. |
[2] | Araya, A., Keesstra, S. D., & Stroosnijder, L. (2010). A new agro-climatic classification for crop suitability zoning in northern semi-arid Ethiopia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150 (7), 1057-1064. |
[3] | Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M.,... & Yanda, P. (2007). Africa. |
[4] | Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P., & Kassam, A. (2007). Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Climatic change, 83 (3), 381-399. |
[5] | Coe, R., & Stern, R. D. (2011). Assessing and addressing climate-induced risk in sub-Saharan rainfed agriculture: Lessons learned. Experimental Agriculture, 47 (02), 395-410. |
[6] | Conway, D., & Schipper, E. L. F. (2011). Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 21 (1), 227-237. |
[7] | Cooper, D. S., Doherty, G. M., Haugen, B. R., Kloos, R. T., Lee, S. L., Mandel, S. J.,... & Sherman, S. I. (2009). Revised American Thyroid Association management guidelines for patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer: the American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines taskforce on thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer. Thyroid, 19 (11), 1167-1214. |
[8] | Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J., Rao, K. P. C., Shapiro, B., Shiferaw, B., & Twomlow, S. (2008). Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa: An essential first step in adapting to future climate change?. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 126 (1), 24-35. |
[9] | Demeke, A. B., Keil, A., & Zeller, M. (2011). Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia. Climatic change, 108 (1-2), 185-206. |
[10] | Dixit, P. N., Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J., & Rao, K. P. (2011). Adding value to field-based agronomic research through climate risk assessment: A case study of maize production in Kitale, Kenya. Experimental Agriculture, 47 (02), 317-338. |
[11] | Goulder, L. H., & Pizer, W. A. (2006). The economics of climate change (No. w11923). National Bureau of Economic Research. |
[12] | Hoogenboom, G, Jones, J. W., Porter, C. H., Wilkens, P. W., Boote, K. J., Hunt, L. A., and Tsuji, G. Y. (Editors). 2010. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.5. Volume 1: Overview. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI. |
[13] | Jones, P. G., & Thornton, P. K. (2009). Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 12 (4), 427-437. |
[14] | Jones, P. G., Thornton, P. K., & Heinke, J. (2009). Generating characteristic daily weather data using downscaled climate model data from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment. |
[15] | Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M.,... & Raper, S. C. (2007). Global climate projections. Climate change, 3495, 747-845. |
[16] | Parry, M. L. (Ed.). (2007). Climate change 2007-impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4). Cambridge University Press. |
[17] | Pathak, T. B., Fraisse, C. W., Jones, J. W., Messina, C. D., & Hoogenboom, G. (2007). Use of global sensitivity analysis for CROPGRO cotton model development. Transactions of the ASABE, 50 (6), 2295-2302. |
[18] | Román-Paoli, E., Welch, S. M., & Vanderlip, R. L. (2000). Comparing genetic coefficient estimation methods using the CERES-Maize model. Agricultural Systems, 65 (1), 29-41. |
[19] | Rosell, S. (2011). Regional perspective on rainfall change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia, 1978–2007. Applied Geography, 31 (1), 329-338. |
[20] | Slingo, J. M., Challinor, A. J., Hoskins, B. J., & Wheeler, T. R. (2005). Introduction: food crops in a changing climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 360 (1463), 1983-1989. |
[21] | Stern, N. (2006). What is the economics of climate change?. WORLD ECONOMICS-HENLEY ON THAMES-, 7 (2), 1. |
[22] | Stern, N. H. (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. cambridge University press. |
[23] | Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J., & Challinor, A. J. (2011). Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1934), 117-136. |
[24] | Tingem, M., Rivington, M., & Bellocchi, G. (2009). Adaptation assessments for crop production in response to climate change in Cameroon. Agronomy for sustainable development, 29 (2), 247-256. |
APA Style
Fikadu Getachew, Mezgebu Getnet, Robel Takele, Eshetu Zewdu. (2017). Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District. International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 1(1), 14-20. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13
ACS Style
Fikadu Getachew; Mezgebu Getnet; Robel Takele; Eshetu Zewdu. Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District. Int. J. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 2017, 1(1), 14-20. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13
@article{10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13, author = {Fikadu Getachew and Mezgebu Getnet and Robel Takele and Eshetu Zewdu}, title = {Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District}, journal = {International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences}, volume = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {14-20}, doi = {10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13}, url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13}, eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaos.20170101.13}, abstract = {Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was calibrated and evaluated to simulate maize (zea mays L.) var. BH660 under current and future climate in Ethiopia under moist mid-highlands of Ethiopia around Ambo Zuria district. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed Maize yield responses. Simulations was made using downscaled weather data from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median Maize yields. Five GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and decrease.}, year = {2017} }
TY - JOUR T1 - Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District AU - Fikadu Getachew AU - Mezgebu Getnet AU - Robel Takele AU - Eshetu Zewdu Y1 - 2017/02/27 PY - 2017 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13 DO - 10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13 T2 - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences JF - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences JO - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences SP - 14 EP - 20 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2640-1150 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20170101.13 AB - Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was calibrated and evaluated to simulate maize (zea mays L.) var. BH660 under current and future climate in Ethiopia under moist mid-highlands of Ethiopia around Ambo Zuria district. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed Maize yield responses. Simulations was made using downscaled weather data from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median Maize yields. Five GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and decrease. VL - 1 IS - 1 ER -