The Impact of CO<sub>2</sub>, H<sub>2</sub>O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures

David Coe; Walter Fabinski; Gerhard Wiegleb

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

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The Impact of CO₂, H₂O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures

David Coe, Walter Fabinski, Gerhard Wiegleb

Published in International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (Volume 5, Issue 2)

Received: 2 August 2021 Accepted: 11 August 2021 Published: 23 August 2021

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Abstract

It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H₂O and CO₂. What is surprising is the wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO₂, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change. Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO₂ concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results. The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO₂, but also CH₄ and N₂O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO₂ contributing 3.3K and CH₄ and N₂O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO₂ concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H₂O, while climate sensitivities to CH₄ and N₂O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO₂ will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH₄ and N₂O will have very little discernable impact.

Published in	International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (Volume 5, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
Page(s)	29-40
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Carbon Dioxide, Climate Sensitivity, Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change

References

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[3]	H. Harde, Radiation Transfer Calculations and Assessment of Global Warming by CO₂, International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 2017, Article ID 9251034.
[4]	W. A. van Wijngaarden & W. Happer, Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics arXiv: 2006.03098 (2020).
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[7]	K. E. Trenberth, J. T. Fasullo and J. Kiehl, “Earth’s Global Energy Budget”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 90, no. 3, pp 311-323, 2009.
[8]	Stevens, B., S. C. Sherwood, S. Bony, and M. J. Webb (2016), Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity, Earth’s Future, 4, 512-522. Future, 4, 512–522 doi: 10.1002/2016EF000376.
[9]	D. J. Wilson and J. Gea-Banacloche, Simple Model to Estimate the Contribution of Atmospheric CO₂ to the Earth’s Greenhouse Effect, Am. J. Phys. 80 306 (2012).
[10]	I. E. Gordon, L. S. Rothman et al., The HITRAN2016 Molecular Spectroscopic Database, JQSRT 203, 3-69 (2017).
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[13]	Hermann Harde, "Radiation and Heat Transfer in the Atmosphere: A Comprehensive approach on a Molecular Basis", International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 2013, Article ID 503727, 26 pages, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/503727.
[14]	H. Harde, Radiative and Heat Transfer in the Atmosphere: A Comprehensive Approach on a Molecular Basis, Int. J. Atm. Sci. 503727, (2013).
[15]	M. Etminan, G. Myhre, E. J. Highwood and K. P. Shine, Radiative Forcing of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide: A Significant Revision of the Methane Radiative Forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 12614 (2016).
[16]	I. M. Held and B. J. Soden (2000) Water Vapour Feedback and Global Warming, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Vol. 25:441-475 (Nov 2000).
[17]	K. W. Thoning, A. M. Crotwell, and J. W. Mund (2021), Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from continuous measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, Barrow, Alaska, American Samoa and South Pole. 1973-2019, Version 2021-02 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML), Boulder, Colorado, USA.

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David Coe, Walter Fabinski, Gerhard Wiegleb. (2021). The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures. International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 5(2), 29-40. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

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ACS Style

David Coe; Walter Fabinski; Gerhard Wiegleb. The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures. Int. J. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 2021, 5(2), 29-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

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AMA Style

David Coe, Walter Fabinski, Gerhard Wiegleb. The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures. Int J Atmos Oceanic Sci. 2021;5(2):29-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12,
  author = {David Coe and Walter Fabinski and Gerhard Wiegleb},
  title = {The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures},
  journal = {International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences},
  volume = {5},
  number = {2},
  pages = {29-40},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12},
  abstract = {It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H2O and CO2. What is surprising is the wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change. Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results. The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and N2O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures
AU  - David Coe
AU  - Walter Fabinski
AU  - Gerhard Wiegleb
Y1  - 2021/08/23
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
T2  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
SP  - 29
EP  - 40
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2640-1150
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
AB  - It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H2O and CO2. What is surprising is the wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change. Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results. The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and N2O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

David Coe

Retired from Codel International Ltd, Bakewell, England
Walter Fabinski

Retired from ABB Automation, Frankfurt, Germany
Gerhard Wiegleb

Department of Electrical Engineering (Research Group for Environmental Monitoring), University of Applied Sciences Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany

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APA Style

David Coe, Walter Fabinski, Gerhard Wiegleb. (2021). The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures. International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 5(2), 29-40. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

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ACS Style

David Coe; Walter Fabinski; Gerhard Wiegleb. The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures. Int. J. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 2021, 5(2), 29-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

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AMA Style

David Coe, Walter Fabinski, Gerhard Wiegleb. The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures. Int J Atmos Oceanic Sci. 2021;5(2):29-40. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12,
  author = {David Coe and Walter Fabinski and Gerhard Wiegleb},
  title = {The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures},
  journal = {International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences},
  volume = {5},
  number = {2},
  pages = {29-40},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12},
  abstract = {It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H2O and CO2. What is surprising is the wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change. Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results. The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and N2O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures
AU  - David Coe
AU  - Walter Fabinski
AU  - Gerhard Wiegleb
Y1  - 2021/08/23
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
T2  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
SP  - 29
EP  - 40
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2640-1150
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210502.12
AB  - It has long been accepted that the “greenhouse effect”, where the atmosphere readily transmits short wavelength incoming solar radiation but selectively absorbs long wavelength outgoing radiation emitted by the earth, is responsible for warming the earth from the 255K effective earth temperature, without atmospheric warming, to the current average temperature of 288K. It is also widely accepted that the two main atmospheric greenhouse gases are H2O and CO2. What is surprising is the wide variation in the estimated warming potential of CO2, the gas held responsible for the modern concept of climate change. Estimates published by the IPCC for climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentration vary from 1.5 to 4.5°C based upon a plethora of scientific papers attempting to analyse the complexities of atmospheric thermodynamics to determine their results. The aim of this paper is to simplify the method of achieving a figure for climate sensitivity not only for CO2, but also CH4 and N2O, which are also considered to be strong greenhouse gases, by determining just how atmospheric absorption has resulted in the current 33K warming and then extrapolating that result to calculate the expected warming due to future increases of greenhouse gas concentrations. The HITRAN database of gaseous absorption spectra enables the absorption of earth radiation at its current temperature of 288K to be accurately determined for each individual atmospheric constituent and also for the combined absorption of the atmosphere as a whole. From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K. Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K respectively. This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
ER  -

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