Research Article | | Peer-Reviewed

Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania

Received: 29 September 2025     Accepted: 10 October 2025     Published: 29 December 2025
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Climate change is affecting climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture in developing countries. Tanzania as one of the developing countries is hit by the climate change impacts, especially in semi-arid areas. This study aimed to analyze the agro-pastoralists’ perceptions on climate change, adaptation strategies and determinants of adaptation to climate change of agro-pastoralists. The study was conducted in Kongwa district, Dodoma region in central zone Tanzania. A cross-sectional design was used to collect quantitative data by using structured questionnaires. Two wards, Ugogoni and Mtanana were used in this study where 240 respondents were interviewed under consent using the structured questionnaire. Focused group discussion (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) were also used. The results showed that most of the agro-pastoralists perceive decrease in rainfalls’ distribution (95.4%), decline in rainfalls’ intensity (88.8%), delay of rainfall (88.8%), early cessation of rains (97.9%), increase in temperatures (91.3%), re-occurrence of floods (74.9%), and droughts (91.3%) over the past 20 years. The mostly used climate change adaptation strategies in crop production were changes of planting dates (98.8%), planting density (96.3%), crop diversification (92.1%), use of improved crop varieties (34.2%), crop rotation (16.3%), and tree planting (10.0%), whereas in livestock production, were livestock diversification (30.8%), storage of feed and crop residues (21.3%), and feeding strategies (10.0%). The binary logistic regression model results showed that the determinants of climate change that significantly influence resilience in Kongwa district were geo-location, with 4.288 odds; age (0.953 odds/ 95.3%), number of livestock owned (1.056 odds), and land size (6.097 odds). The study revealed that livestock sector’s adaptive capacity is lower as compared to crop production sector. The study suggested that government should improve the accessibility to inputs and subsidies, such as improved crop, pasture and animal seeds to foster resilience of agro-pastoralists.

Published in International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy (Volume 13, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13
Page(s) 161-173
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Adaptation, Agro-pastoralists, Determinants, Kongwa District

References
[1] Tesfahunegn, G. B., Mekonen, K., & Tekle, A. (2016). Farmers’ perception on causes, indicators and determinants of climate change in northern Ethiopia: Implication for developing adaptation strategies. Applied Geography, 73, 1-12.
[2] IPCC, (2014). Climate Change: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
[3] O’Brien, K. L., & Leichenko, R. M. (2000). Double exposure: Assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environmental Change, 10(3), 221-232.
[4] Ayal, D., Desta, S., Robinson, L. (2019). Governance Dimensions of Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Didahara, Borana, Southern Ethiopia. In: Leal, F. W. (Ed.), Handbook of Climate Change Resilience. Springer, Cham.
[5] Seid, S., Jema, H., Degye, G., (2016). Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers: The Case of Assosa District, Western Ethiopia. Journal of Environment and Earth Science 6(7).
[6] Zinyengere, N., Crespo, O., Hachigonta, S., & Tadross, M. (2015). Crop model usefulness in drylands of southern Africa: An application of DSSAT. South African Journal of Plant and Soil, 32(2), 95-104.
[7] Kusse, K., Araro, K., & Dagne, M. (2023). Climate Change Adaptation Strategies And Their Determinants In Agro-Pastoral Areas Of Southern Ethiopia. Journal on Environmental Sciences ISSN, 2836, 4899.
[8] Tilahun, D. F. (2021). Effects of climate change and adaptation strategies among pastoralists and agropastoralists. the case of mieso district, west hararghe zone, oromia regional state, Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation, Haramaya university).
[9] Achola, J. Y. (2021). Assessing Sustainability of Pastoralism Under a Changing Climate in Kajiado County, Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).
[10] Gizachewu, A., & Gizachewu, A. (2021). Climate change and farm households adaptation strategies in lare woreda, gambella region Southwest Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation).
[11] Wangu, J. M. (2014). Pastoral Land Privatization and Community Adaptability to Climate Change in Maji Moto, Kenya: On Opportunities and Negative Implications of the Tenure Reform (Master's thesis).
[12] Bewket, W., Alemu, D., Zeleke, G., Assefa, Y., & Trutmann, P. (2011). Extent and determinants of household poverty in rural Ethiopia: A study of six villages. Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review, 27(2), 21-49.
[13] FAO, (2016). “Diversification strategies and adaptation deficit: evidence from rural communities in Niger”, in Asfaw, S., Palma, A. and Lipp er, L. (Eds), ESA Working Paper No. 16-02, FAO, Rome.
[14] FAO, (2012). FAO Statistical Yearbook 2012: Africa Food and Agriculture, FAO, Rome.
[15] Phuong, L. (2011). “Climate change and farmers’ adaptation: a case study of mixed-farming systems in the coastal area in Trieu Van commune, Trieu Phong district, Quang Tri province, Vietnam”, Master’s thesis, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
[16] Alex, S. (2018). The impact of climate change on rural agro-pastoralist communities in Aweil East County, South Sudan (Doctoral dissertation, Nkumba University).
[17] Kangalawe, R. Y. M. & Lyimo, J. G., (2013). Climate change, adaptive strategies and rural livelihoods in semiarid Tanzania.
[18] Maoncha, M. R., Obwoyere, G. O., & Recha, W. C. S. (2022). Effects of perceived climate variability on provisioning ecosystem services among agro-pastoral communities agro-pastoral communities agro-pastoral communities of Laikipia west sub-county, Kenya. Rigorous Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 1(9).
[19] Syabwanta, S. (2019). A proposed climate change education programme for Sinazongwe district of Southern Zambia (Doctoral dissertation, The University of Zambia).
[20] Muricho, D. N. (2018). A Socio-economic Analysis of the Role of Indigenous Knowledge and External Interventions in Pastoralists’ Livelihood Resilience in West Pokot County, Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).
[21] Tagnigue, R. K. (2011). Identification of agro-pastoralists adaptation strategies to climate variability: A case study in Mopti-Mali (Doctoral dissertation, University of Kassel).
[22] Dobamo, T. D. (2020). Impact Of Climate Change On Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies: The case of Lemo District, Hadiya zone, Southern Ethiopia (Doctoral Dissertation).
[23] Galwab, A. M., Koech, O. K., Wasonga, O. V., & Kironchi, G. (2023). Analysis of Rainfall Spatiotemporal Variability and Its Impact on Livelihood in Marsabit, Kenya. East African Agricultural and Forestry Journal, 87(3&4), 20-20.
[24] Chege, M. W. (2022). Impacts of climatic variability on wildlife and livestock composition and productivity index in maasai mara narok county, kenya (Doctoral dissertation, Kenyatta University).
[25] Grace, M. N. (2021). Assessment of Smallholder farmers’ adoption of Climate Smart Agricultural Practices: The case of Bugesera District, Rwanda (Doctoral dissertation, Haramaya University).
[26] Gbetibouo, G. A. (2009). Understanding farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability: The case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa. Intl Food Policy Res Inst.
[27] Kgosikoma, K. R., Lekota, P. C., and Kgosikoma, O. E. (2018). "Agropastoralists’ determinants of adaptation to climate change", International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 10 Issue: 3, pp. 488-500,
[28] Maddison, D. (2006), “The perception of and adaptation to climate change in Africa”, CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 10. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy inAfrica, University of Pretoria. The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa - CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 10.
[29] FAO, (2008). Climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Food and Agriculture sector technical background document from the expert consultation held on 5 to 7 March 2008 FAO, Rome (p. 16).
[30] Hox, J. J. & De Leeuw, E. D. (1994). Quality and Quantity, Vol. 28 No. 4, pp. 329-344, available at:
[31] Marin, A. (2010). “Riders under storms: contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analyzing climate change in Mongolia”, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 162-176.
[32] Fernández-Llamazares, Á., Díaz-Reviriego, I., Guèze, M., Cabeza, M., Pyhälä, A. and Reyes-García, V. (2016), “Local perceptions as a guide for the sustainable management of natural resources: empirical evidence from a small-scale society in Bolivian Amazonia”, Ecology and Society, Vol. 21 No. 1, p. 2, available at:
[33] Yamane, T. (1967). Statistics, an introductory Analysis 2nd Edition: Horper and Row. New York.
[34] Tofu, A. D., K. Wolka, and T. Woldeamanuel. 2022. The impact of alternative energy technology investment on environment and food security in northern Ethiopia. Scientific report 12(1): 10403.
[35] Mood, C. (2010). Logistic regression: Why we cannot do what we think we can do, and what we can do about it. European sociological review, 26(1), 67-82.
[36] Çokluk, Ö. (2010). Logistic Regression Analysis: Concept and Application. Theory and Practice in Educational Sciences, 10(3), 1357-1407.
[37] Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
[38] Feder, G., & Umali, D. L. (1993). Adoption of Agricultural Innovations. A review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 43, 215-239.
[39] Landau, S., & Everitt, B. S. (2004). A handbook of statistical analyses using SPSS. Chapman & Hall/CRC.
[40] Matata, P., Bushesha, M., & Msindai, J. (2019). Assessing rainfall and temperature changes in semi-arid areas of Tanzania. American Journal of Climate Change, 8(2), 173-189.
[41] Sangeda, A. Z., Maleko, D. D., & Mtengeti, E. J. (2013). Socio-economic and ecological dimensions of climate variability and change for agro-pastoral communities in central Tanzania. Livestock Research for Rural Development, 25(12), Article #209. Retrieved from
[42] Cheo, A. E. (2016). Understanding seasonal trend of rainfall for the better planning of water harvesting facilities in the Far-North region, Cameroon. Water Utility Journal, 13, 3-11.
[43] Niang, I., Ruppel, O. C., Abdrabo, M. A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J. and Urquhart, P. (2014). Africa, In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Chapter 22: Africa - IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
[44] Kadiro, G. K., & Beyene, P. (2020). Pastoralists’ perceptions, vulnerability and their adaptation strategies to climate change and variability: challenges to pastoral mobility in borana zone of Southern Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation, Haramaya university).
[45] Yanda, P. Z., Mabhuye, E. B., Mwajombe, A. R., & Msambichaka, S. J. (2021). Tracking pathways to recovery from climate shocks and resilience enhancement. Environmental Management, 71, 99-113.
[46] Singh, A. K. (2020). Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Livestock Sector in Ethiopia. Orangebooks Publication.
[47] Opiyo, F., Wasonga, O., Nyangito, M., Schilling, J. and Munang, R. (2015). “Drought adaptation and coping strategies among the turkana pastoralists of Northern Kenya”, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 295-309,
[48] Hassan, R. M., & Nhemachena, C. (2008). Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: Multinomial choice analysis. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2(1), 83-104.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Felix, D. K., Sangeda, A. Z., Kilemo, D. B. (2025). Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania. International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy, 13(6), 161-173. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Felix, D. K.; Sangeda, A. Z.; Kilemo, D. B. Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania. Int. J. Environ. Prot. Policy 2025, 13(6), 161-173. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Felix DK, Sangeda AZ, Kilemo DB. Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania. Int J Environ Prot Policy. 2025;13(6):161-173. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13,
      author = {Dauson Kamwangire Felix and Anthony Zozimus Sangeda and Dominico Benedicto Kilemo},
      title = {Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania},
      journal = {International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy},
      volume = {13},
      number = {6},
      pages = {161-173},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepp.20251306.13},
      abstract = {Climate change is affecting climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture in developing countries. Tanzania as one of the developing countries is hit by the climate change impacts, especially in semi-arid areas. This study aimed to analyze the agro-pastoralists’ perceptions on climate change, adaptation strategies and determinants of adaptation to climate change of agro-pastoralists. The study was conducted in Kongwa district, Dodoma region in central zone Tanzania. A cross-sectional design was used to collect quantitative data by using structured questionnaires. Two wards, Ugogoni and Mtanana were used in this study where 240 respondents were interviewed under consent using the structured questionnaire. Focused group discussion (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) were also used. The results showed that most of the agro-pastoralists perceive decrease in rainfalls’ distribution (95.4%), decline in rainfalls’ intensity (88.8%), delay of rainfall (88.8%), early cessation of rains (97.9%), increase in temperatures (91.3%), re-occurrence of floods (74.9%), and droughts (91.3%) over the past 20 years. The mostly used climate change adaptation strategies in crop production were changes of planting dates (98.8%), planting density (96.3%), crop diversification (92.1%), use of improved crop varieties (34.2%), crop rotation (16.3%), and tree planting (10.0%), whereas in livestock production, were livestock diversification (30.8%), storage of feed and crop residues (21.3%), and feeding strategies (10.0%). The binary logistic regression model results showed that the determinants of climate change that significantly influence resilience in Kongwa district were geo-location, with 4.288 odds; age (0.953 odds/ 95.3%), number of livestock owned (1.056 odds), and land size (6.097 odds). The study revealed that livestock sector’s adaptive capacity is lower as compared to crop production sector. The study suggested that government should improve the accessibility to inputs and subsidies, such as improved crop, pasture and animal seeds to foster resilience of agro-pastoralists.},
     year = {2025}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Assessment of Determinants of Climate Change Resilience Among Agro-pastoral Communities in Kongwa District, Dodoma-Tanzania
    AU  - Dauson Kamwangire Felix
    AU  - Anthony Zozimus Sangeda
    AU  - Dominico Benedicto Kilemo
    Y1  - 2025/12/29
    PY  - 2025
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13
    T2  - International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy
    JF  - International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy
    JO  - International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy
    SP  - 161
    EP  - 173
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2330-7536
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepp.20251306.13
    AB  - Climate change is affecting climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture in developing countries. Tanzania as one of the developing countries is hit by the climate change impacts, especially in semi-arid areas. This study aimed to analyze the agro-pastoralists’ perceptions on climate change, adaptation strategies and determinants of adaptation to climate change of agro-pastoralists. The study was conducted in Kongwa district, Dodoma region in central zone Tanzania. A cross-sectional design was used to collect quantitative data by using structured questionnaires. Two wards, Ugogoni and Mtanana were used in this study where 240 respondents were interviewed under consent using the structured questionnaire. Focused group discussion (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) were also used. The results showed that most of the agro-pastoralists perceive decrease in rainfalls’ distribution (95.4%), decline in rainfalls’ intensity (88.8%), delay of rainfall (88.8%), early cessation of rains (97.9%), increase in temperatures (91.3%), re-occurrence of floods (74.9%), and droughts (91.3%) over the past 20 years. The mostly used climate change adaptation strategies in crop production were changes of planting dates (98.8%), planting density (96.3%), crop diversification (92.1%), use of improved crop varieties (34.2%), crop rotation (16.3%), and tree planting (10.0%), whereas in livestock production, were livestock diversification (30.8%), storage of feed and crop residues (21.3%), and feeding strategies (10.0%). The binary logistic regression model results showed that the determinants of climate change that significantly influence resilience in Kongwa district were geo-location, with 4.288 odds; age (0.953 odds/ 95.3%), number of livestock owned (1.056 odds), and land size (6.097 odds). The study revealed that livestock sector’s adaptive capacity is lower as compared to crop production sector. The study suggested that government should improve the accessibility to inputs and subsidies, such as improved crop, pasture and animal seeds to foster resilience of agro-pastoralists.
    VL  - 13
    IS  - 6
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Sections