Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications

Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro; Henry Etaroghene Egbogho

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

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Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications

Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro

, Henry Etaroghene Egbogho^*

Published in International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics (Volume 11, Issue 3)

Received: 13 June 2026 Accepted: 13 June 2026 Published: 23 September 2026

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Abstract

Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental problems shaping public health worldwide, mainly when viewing its impact on vector-borne diseases. In the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria, there are ecological conditions that promote the increase of disease vectors, like mosquitoes, sandflies, and ticks, and this is a significant concern. Higher temperatures, shifting rainfall trends, repeated flooding episodes, and humidity swings have altered vector ecology and increased the danger of disease spread. In this work, a climate-sensitive host vector mathematical model is developed to explore how vector-borne diseases change over time under evolving environmental conditions in the Niger-Delta region. The model is developed based on a system of nonlinear differential equations that tracks the interactions between people in susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered groups, along with climate- dependent vector populations. In this setting, several core mathematical properties are confirmed, like positivity and boundedness, plus the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Then the disease-free equilibrium, as well as the endemic equilibrium, are derived and analyzed. With the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number is computed, and it is shown to act as the key quantity that determines whether the disease continues inside the population. Finally, the local stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium stays locally asymptotically stable as long as the reproduction threshold is held strictly below one. The numerical investigations across different climate settings, show that rising temperature, higher rainfall intensity, and greater humidity tend to raise vector abundance and disease prevalence in a noticeable way. The sensitivity analysis, on the other hand, points out vector recruitment rate and climate- modified transmission coefficients as the leading drivers behind how quickly disease spreads. The results also show that using integrated vector management along with environmental sanitation, plus climate adaptive interventions, can substantially lower infection prevalence and the risk that outbreaks will happen. Overall, these findings give measurable evidence for reinforcing environmental health policies, and also for building climate adaptation strategies in the Niger-Delta region. The basic structure that was developed in this work serves as a practical decision support instrument, prepared for policymakers, public health agencies, and environmental regulators who are professionally engaged in prevention efforts and climate resilience planning.

Published in	International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics (Volume 11, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
Page(s)	62-77
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2026. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Vector-Borne Diseases, Environmental Health, Niger-Delta, Mathematical Modelling, Disease

References

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APA Style

Oghenerhoro, S. P., Egbogho, H. E. (2026). Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications. International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics, 11(3), 62-77. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

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ACS Style

Oghenerhoro, S. P.; Egbogho, H. E. Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications. Int. J. Syst. Sci. Appl. Math. 2026, 11(3), 62-77. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

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AMA Style

Oghenerhoro SP, Egbogho HE. Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications. Int J Syst Sci Appl Math. 2026;11(3):62-77. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12,
  author = {Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro and Henry Etaroghene Egbogho},
  title = {Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications},
  journal = {International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {62-77},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijssam.20261103.12},
  abstract = {Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental problems shaping public health worldwide, mainly when viewing its impact on vector-borne diseases. In the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria, there are ecological conditions that promote the increase of disease vectors, like mosquitoes, sandflies, and ticks, and this is a significant concern. Higher temperatures, shifting rainfall trends, repeated flooding episodes, and humidity swings have altered vector ecology and increased the danger of disease spread. In this work, a climate-sensitive host vector mathematical model is developed to explore how vector-borne diseases change over time under evolving environmental conditions in the Niger-Delta region. The model is developed based on a system of nonlinear differential equations that tracks the interactions between people in susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered groups, along with climate- dependent vector populations. In this setting, several core mathematical properties are confirmed, like positivity and boundedness, plus the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Then the disease-free equilibrium, as well as the endemic equilibrium, are derived and analyzed. With the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number is computed, and it is shown to act as the key quantity that determines whether the disease continues inside the population. Finally, the local stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium stays locally asymptotically stable as long as the reproduction threshold is held strictly below one. The numerical investigations across different climate settings, show that rising temperature, higher rainfall intensity, and greater humidity tend to raise vector abundance and disease prevalence in a noticeable way. The sensitivity analysis, on the other hand, points out vector recruitment rate and climate- modified transmission coefficients as the leading drivers behind how quickly disease spreads. The results also show that using integrated vector management along with environmental sanitation, plus climate adaptive interventions, can substantially lower infection prevalence and the risk that outbreaks will happen. Overall, these findings give measurable evidence for reinforcing environmental health policies, and also for building climate adaptation strategies in the Niger-Delta region. The basic structure that was developed in this work serves as a practical decision support instrument, prepared for policymakers, public health agencies, and environmental regulators who are professionally engaged in prevention efforts and climate resilience planning.},
 year = {2026}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications
AU  - Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro
AU  - Henry Etaroghene Egbogho
Y1  - 2026/09/23
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
T2  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JF  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JO  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
SP  - 62
EP  - 77
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5803
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
AB  - Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental problems shaping public health worldwide, mainly when viewing its impact on vector-borne diseases. In the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria, there are ecological conditions that promote the increase of disease vectors, like mosquitoes, sandflies, and ticks, and this is a significant concern. Higher temperatures, shifting rainfall trends, repeated flooding episodes, and humidity swings have altered vector ecology and increased the danger of disease spread. In this work, a climate-sensitive host vector mathematical model is developed to explore how vector-borne diseases change over time under evolving environmental conditions in the Niger-Delta region. The model is developed based on a system of nonlinear differential equations that tracks the interactions between people in susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered groups, along with climate- dependent vector populations. In this setting, several core mathematical properties are confirmed, like positivity and boundedness, plus the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Then the disease-free equilibrium, as well as the endemic equilibrium, are derived and analyzed. With the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number is computed, and it is shown to act as the key quantity that determines whether the disease continues inside the population. Finally, the local stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium stays locally asymptotically stable as long as the reproduction threshold is held strictly below one. The numerical investigations across different climate settings, show that rising temperature, higher rainfall intensity, and greater humidity tend to raise vector abundance and disease prevalence in a noticeable way. The sensitivity analysis, on the other hand, points out vector recruitment rate and climate- modified transmission coefficients as the leading drivers behind how quickly disease spreads. The results also show that using integrated vector management along with environmental sanitation, plus climate adaptive interventions, can substantially lower infection prevalence and the risk that outbreaks will happen. Overall, these findings give measurable evidence for reinforcing environmental health policies, and also for building climate adaptation strategies in the Niger-Delta region. The basic structure that was developed in this work serves as a practical decision support instrument, prepared for policymakers, public health agencies, and environmental regulators who are professionally engaged in prevention efforts and climate resilience planning.
VL  - 11
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro

Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, Dennis Osadebay University, Asaba, Nigeria

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0001-2341-1668
Henry Etaroghene Egbogho

Department of Mathematics, Dennis Osadebay University, Asaba, Nigeria

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0001-6230-5294

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APA Style

Oghenerhoro, S. P., Egbogho, H. E. (2026). Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications. International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics, 11(3), 62-77. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

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ACS Style

Oghenerhoro, S. P.; Egbogho, H. E. Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications. Int. J. Syst. Sci. Appl. Math. 2026, 11(3), 62-77. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

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AMA Style

Oghenerhoro SP, Egbogho HE. Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications. Int J Syst Sci Appl Math. 2026;11(3):62-77. doi: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12,
  author = {Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro and Henry Etaroghene Egbogho},
  title = {Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications},
  journal = {International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {62-77},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijssam.20261103.12},
  abstract = {Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental problems shaping public health worldwide, mainly when viewing its impact on vector-borne diseases. In the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria, there are ecological conditions that promote the increase of disease vectors, like mosquitoes, sandflies, and ticks, and this is a significant concern. Higher temperatures, shifting rainfall trends, repeated flooding episodes, and humidity swings have altered vector ecology and increased the danger of disease spread. In this work, a climate-sensitive host vector mathematical model is developed to explore how vector-borne diseases change over time under evolving environmental conditions in the Niger-Delta region. The model is developed based on a system of nonlinear differential equations that tracks the interactions between people in susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered groups, along with climate- dependent vector populations. In this setting, several core mathematical properties are confirmed, like positivity and boundedness, plus the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Then the disease-free equilibrium, as well as the endemic equilibrium, are derived and analyzed. With the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number is computed, and it is shown to act as the key quantity that determines whether the disease continues inside the population. Finally, the local stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium stays locally asymptotically stable as long as the reproduction threshold is held strictly below one. The numerical investigations across different climate settings, show that rising temperature, higher rainfall intensity, and greater humidity tend to raise vector abundance and disease prevalence in a noticeable way. The sensitivity analysis, on the other hand, points out vector recruitment rate and climate- modified transmission coefficients as the leading drivers behind how quickly disease spreads. The results also show that using integrated vector management along with environmental sanitation, plus climate adaptive interventions, can substantially lower infection prevalence and the risk that outbreaks will happen. Overall, these findings give measurable evidence for reinforcing environmental health policies, and also for building climate adaptation strategies in the Niger-Delta region. The basic structure that was developed in this work serves as a practical decision support instrument, prepared for policymakers, public health agencies, and environmental regulators who are professionally engaged in prevention efforts and climate resilience planning.},
 year = {2026}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications
AU  - Suit Patrick Oghenerhoro
AU  - Henry Etaroghene Egbogho
Y1  - 2026/09/23
PY  - 2026
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
T2  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JF  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
JO  - International Journal of Systems Science and Applied Mathematics
SP  - 62
EP  - 77
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-5803
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12
AB  - Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental problems shaping public health worldwide, mainly when viewing its impact on vector-borne diseases. In the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria, there are ecological conditions that promote the increase of disease vectors, like mosquitoes, sandflies, and ticks, and this is a significant concern. Higher temperatures, shifting rainfall trends, repeated flooding episodes, and humidity swings have altered vector ecology and increased the danger of disease spread. In this work, a climate-sensitive host vector mathematical model is developed to explore how vector-borne diseases change over time under evolving environmental conditions in the Niger-Delta region. The model is developed based on a system of nonlinear differential equations that tracks the interactions between people in susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered groups, along with climate- dependent vector populations. In this setting, several core mathematical properties are confirmed, like positivity and boundedness, plus the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Then the disease-free equilibrium, as well as the endemic equilibrium, are derived and analyzed. With the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number is computed, and it is shown to act as the key quantity that determines whether the disease continues inside the population. Finally, the local stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium stays locally asymptotically stable as long as the reproduction threshold is held strictly below one. The numerical investigations across different climate settings, show that rising temperature, higher rainfall intensity, and greater humidity tend to raise vector abundance and disease prevalence in a noticeable way. The sensitivity analysis, on the other hand, points out vector recruitment rate and climate- modified transmission coefficients as the leading drivers behind how quickly disease spreads. The results also show that using integrated vector management along with environmental sanitation, plus climate adaptive interventions, can substantially lower infection prevalence and the risk that outbreaks will happen. Overall, these findings give measurable evidence for reinforcing environmental health policies, and also for building climate adaptation strategies in the Niger-Delta region. The basic structure that was developed in this work serves as a practical decision support instrument, prepared for policymakers, public health agencies, and environmental regulators who are professionally engaged in prevention efforts and climate resilience planning.
VL  - 11
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download